The Health Ministry’s modelling is forecasting more than 8,000 new Covid-19 cases a day by June if the public does not comply with standard operating procedures (SOPs) against Covid-19.
The SEIR model predicts that if SOP are observed, daily cases can be reduced to approximately 1,000 daily cases with an infectivity rate (Rt) of 0.8.
Rt is used to measure how quickly the virus is spreading.
Health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said in a tweet that the Rt for Malaysia as of May 13 stands at 1.14.
Perak recorded the highest infectivity rate at 1.32, followed by Terengganu (1.29) and Penang (1.21.).
Selangor, Johor, Malacca, Kuala Lumpur, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah and Pahang recorded an infectivity rate above 1.0.
Sabah, Kelantan, Putrajaya and Sarawak recorded an infectivity rate below 1.0.
Four cases were reported in Labuan, while Perlis recorded zero cases.
The latest estimate, first published on May 12, is an upward revision from earlier forecasts.
Previously, the Health Ministry had forecasted around 5,000 new cases per day by June.
However, the real number has consistently exceeded previous forecasts. The latest estimate is more in line with the actual number of cases.
The infectivity rate must be brought down to under 1.0 to stop the exponential growth of new Covid-19 cases. It has not fallen below 1.0 since April 7.