Almost all the drones and missiles were intercepted.
After almost 2 weeks of discussing how to retaliate over Israel’s bold strikes on its embassy in Syria’s capital Damascus, Tehran could not find any option except a direct attack on Israel. To strike the Jewish state from proxies located in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen or Iraq would be not only lame but ineffective. After all, its proxies have been attacking Israel – without success – since October 7.
The biggest headache was how to satisfy the domestic audience, who waited impatiently for Iran Mullahs to avenge the assassination of three generals, including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the top commander of the elite Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC). Already, graffiti on a wall in Tehran mocks – “Israel, they don’t have the balls to seek revenge. Hit them harder next time, Israel, they have wet their pants”.
To save face and to avoid looking weak, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, agreed to strike Israel directly from Iranian soil for the first time. It would send powerful propaganda that the regime has the balls to attack Israel, known as one of the most powerful military countries in the region. As predicted, wild celebrations erupted across Iran when news broke that missiles were on the way to punish the Jews.
More than 300 munitions – 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles – were launched by Iranian forces on Saturday night (April 13). Behind the scenes, however, all its proxies as well as the United States – supposedly the Great Satan – were informed of the incoming attack 72 hours before it happened. As a result, American, Israeli and other allied forces easily shot down 99% of them.
From the moment Iranian drones and missiles were launched, they were tracked by early warning radars in Persian Gulf countries linked to the US operations centre in Qatar. That information was then transmitted to fighter jets from several countries participating in the US-led operation to defend the Jewish state, as well as to warships and missile defence batteries in Israel.
Only a handful of missiles landed in Israel, causing light damage to Nevatim Air Base in the country’s south, which was fully operational within hours. The only injury was a 7-year-old Bedouin Arab girl. Israel’s multilayered air defence system and fighter jets from the US, the UK and France had been waiting for hours for the drones to arrive. Everyone seems to be the winner, taking home their respective trophy.
Iran’s top military commanders brag and lie to the gullible citizens that the bombardment of Israel was a “success beyond expectations”, even though 99% of the more than 300 projectiles failed to reach Israeli territory. The Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, quickly declared the operation was finished and the goals were achieved.
Yes, it was incredibly easy to scam the people of Iran, who blindly believed that their homemade missiles and drones had damaged Nevatim Air Base beyond recognition – to the tune of US$100 million worth of damage. If the attack was as successful as claimed, why the Iranian forces did not continue to send thousands more ballistic missiles to annihilate and wipe the Jews off the map and return the land to Palestine?
It was a complete failure. An Israeli drone strike flattened a building in the Iranian Embassy in Syria and killed seven members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In comparison, Iran’s wave of more than 300 kamikaze drones, and cruise and ballistic missiles only managed to inflict minor damage on an Israeli military base and killed zero Jews. A marvellous success!
There were speculations that Tehran and Washington were working together to orchestrate the Iranian strike so that Israel wouldn’t be harmed and escalation would be prevented while allowing both Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Joe Biden to claim credits. Perhaps Tel Aviv should be grateful that Iranians are mostly dumb, otherwise, it would be tougher to script a retaliation strike that could satisfy the people.
While praising Israel’s remarkable capacity to defend the unprecedented attacks, Biden had made good on his promise of “ironclad” American support to defend Israel. The president also showed his administration could hastily, but effectively, form an alliance to defeat Iran’s bombardment – even though it was the Israeli missile defence system Iron Dome which did most of the heavy lifting.
Seeking re-election, Biden was bleeding votes in a rematch against Donald Trump. The Democrat presidential nominee, like Barack Obama, has a soft spot for Iran. His handling of the Israel-Iran conflict could score some brownie points if he manages to de-escalate the crisis. Crucially, he doesn’t want oil prices to skyrocket, which could trigger another round of fierce inflation.
In the same breath, Israel too could claim victory. It seems the “Little Satan” is not at all isolated, and still has many powerful friends – the US, Germany, France, Great Britain and even Jordan and Egypt who had helped to intercept and shoot down Iranian drones. Saudi Arabia too played its role – hosting Western air-defence systems, surveillance and refuelling aircraft that were vital for the US-led effort.
Not only Israel can claim it was not alone in the Middle East, but the support from Saudi and Jordan also means the Sunni Muslims in the region trust the Jews more than Iran-led Shia Muslims. Most of the Iranian drones and missiles were destroyed before they even reached Israeli airspace. Of course, the wealthy Gulf kingdoms could easily argue that they were merely safeguarding their sovereign airspace by intercepting Iranian drones.
However, despite victories claimed by all parties – Iran, America and Israel – Iran’s attack has set a new standard where the Mullahs can now respond with a new wave of drones and missiles directly whenever Israel attacks its interests. This red line cannot be accepted by Tel Aviv. While the US and Iran said they did not seek wider conflict, the same cannot be said about Israel.
Israel, already created enough political trouble for Biden, said on Sunday that the “crisis is not over” – suggesting that it was doing re-calculations on retaliations. It was encouraged by the fact that half of the ballistic missiles that Iran launched either failed to launch or fell from the sky before reaching their targets. It wanted to strike while the iron was hot, especially the Iranian nuclear facilities.
But Joe Biden has no appetite for another Middle Eastern crisis when the Israel-Hamas War is getting worse, reportedly warned Benjamin Netanyahu that the US will not participate in any Israeli counterattacks against Iran. “You got a win. Take the win,” – Biden reportedly told Netanyahu. Lloyd Austin, the US secretary of defence, has asked that Israel notify Washington ahead of any response against Iran.
Biden does not want to lose more American Muslim votes just because of the Jews. Whether Tel Aviv will obediently listen to Sleepy Joe is another matter. After all, when the POTUS warned Tehran “don’t” proceed with the plan to strike, the Iranians did it anyway. So, why should Israel listen to the weak Commander-in-Chief, after he was slapped by the Mullahs?
Besides, the US president could be bluffing about not defending Israel again should it retaliate against Iran’s latest attack. Additionally, Iran’s warning to Israel not to retaliate could be interpreted as a bluffing game that Tehran had played its last card and may not respond in the same manner again should the Jewish state suddenly strike deep inside Iran.
Even if Israel agrees not to retaliate, at least for now, it could certainly extract some concessions from the US such as new rounds of military aid and funding, which it could build to be used against Iran at a later stage. It now has the higher ground not to entertain any requests from the White House on a cease-fire deal with terrorist group Hamas.
Tehran might think it had won the battle. But its latest move could backfire. Saudi and its allies can see how Iran can be a very dangerous enemy. The only reason Tehran agreed to restrict its attack and share information about how it planned to attack Israel is because it has not developed nuclear weapons. Like it or not, it makes Israel more valuable to the Arab states. – Finance Twitter