Three Pakatan Harapan state governments are set to fall to the new federal ruling pact Perikatan Nasional, making it a total of eight states in the hands of the Muhyiddin Yassin-led government.
After Johor, which was taken over by a Bersatu-Umno administration, the other PH states expected to fall soon are Malacca, Perak and Kedah.
On Friday, Johor Umno liaison chairman Hasni Mohammad was sworn in as the 18th menteri besar before Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar, making way for a Umno-Bersatu state government.
As it stands, PAS and Umno rule Perlis, Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang.
And PN’s ally, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), is the ruling pact in Sarawak.
It was reported that Paya Rumput assemblyman Mohd Rafiq Naizamohideen said a new Malacca government will be formed soon following the same partnership formula in Putrajaya.
“We will follow the formula led by Muhyiddin Yassin as the prime minister.
“Malacca will follow suit. As for now we have 16 state seats compared to 12 in the hands of Pakatan Harapan.”
Rafiq, from Bersatu, said he and two other state assemblymen – Bersatu’s Telok Mas rep Noor Effandi Ahmad and PKR’s Rembia assemblyman Muhammad Jailani Khamis – will join the new coalition.
Discussions with the Umno leadership will soon take place before meeting the Yang di-Pertua Negeri to show proof of a majority support.
“We choose to form a new state government and will meet the TYT after discussing the matter with the Umno leadership.
“We will meet up as soon as possible. God willing in a week we can have this settled.”
Meanwhile, over in Perak, menteri besar Ahmad Faizal Azumu, from Bersatu, also said that a new government may be formed under Perikatan Nasional following the newly minted government in Putrajaya.
He will seek an audience with Sultan Nazrin Shah to inform the ruler on this latest development.
Together with PAS, Umno, and independents, Bersatu has 31 seats while PH has 28 in Perak.
In Kedah, the state government under Mukhriz Mahathir is also unstable following the change of government in Putrajaya.
Mukhriz remains as menteri besar under a Bersatu-PH partnership after his party left the coalition last week.
This understanding, however, will come be tested since Mukhriz is deemed to have lost the confidence of his own party, and based on the fact that Bersatu is partnering Umno and PAS at the federal level.
PN needs one or two more PH candidates to form a new government in Kedah.
Bersatu is also affected as party chairman Dr Mahathir Mohamad was sacked following Muhyiddin’s ascent as prime minister.
With almost a supermajority in Kedah, PN can drop Mukhriz without any risk to their control of the state.
The PH government in Negri Sembilan should be unaffected as there are no Bersatu representatives in the state assembly there.
Both PH strongholds of Selangor and Penang also appear safe for the time being as Bersatu did not contribute significantly to the defence of both states in 2018.
PH ally Warisan rules Sabah.
Outwardly in Selangor, PH still enjoys a two-thirds majority in the assembly even without Bersatu’s six elected representatives, including former PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, who is the Bukit Antarabangsa assemblyman.
Complicating matters in Selangor, however, is the fact that Azmin was the state MB prior to his appointment as economic affairs minister and is believed to still wield considerable influence in the state and over its officials.
PKR has already sacked Gombak Setia assemblyman Hilman Idham, an Azmin loyalist, further reducing its representation in Selangor.
Matters in Penang are significantly clearer as PH all but wiped out the Opposition in the previous general election, taking 37 of the state’s 40 seats. The departure of the two Bersatu representatives will have no effect on the balance of power there.
While the number of Bersatu lawmakers is indisputable, where their allegiances lie is less certain. Dr Mahathir’s camp in the party is seeking to convince supporters and sympathisers that he was betrayed and could still sway some of them to his side.
Allegiances also continue to shift as some of the lawmakers who declared for Muhyiddin and Dr Mahathir continue to alter their positions, making it difficult to conclusively determine who has the support they claim short of an open vote.