Malaysia could log 20,000 Covid-19 cases by October 10 with an infection rate, or R-naught (R0) of 1.86.
This worst-case scenario was demonstrated today by director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah using charts on social media.
It is not known what the R0 value is today, as it changes depending on the number of daily confirmed cases. A record 432 cases were reported yesterday, compared to 293 the day before.
Dr Noor Hisham posted projections for three hypothetical scenarios based on varying R0 values.
At 2.2 R0, Malaysia could see more than 4,500 cases daily by October 31.
At 1.5 R0, new daily cases would not exceed 1,500, and in the best-case scenario at 0.3 R0, they would number 100 or less.
R0 is the rate at which an infection spreads. The higher the number, the quicker the infection is being transmitted.
“This graph is the simplest way to illustrate our current scenario. Let us all come together to flatten the curve again,” Dr Noor Hisham said.
Dr Jill Ho, a healthcare coordinator at Acts Community, a non-profit organisation aiding marginalised communities, said the charts compare the rates at which new cases increase or decrease.
“Scenario one is when there are 100 new cases on day one, and another 100 new cases on day two,” she said.
“Scenario two is 10 new cases on day one, and 100 new cases on day two.”
“Between the two scenarios, the first has a lower increase compared to the second,” she said.
“This is a rough explanation of the R0. Scenario one shows a lower R0 than scenario two because the increase is lower.
“If we take good care, we can achieve the desired outcome just like how we managed to flatten the curve in the previous wave of Covid.”
Meanwhile, Malaysia recorded 691 new Covid-19 cases today, the highest daily count yet, bringing the cumulative number to 13,504.
Dr Noor Hisham said from the number, 394 of the cases were detected from the Tembok cluster (Alor Star prison).
He said there were 2,936 active cases currently being isolated and undergoing treatment.
A total of 87 more Covid-19 patients have recovered from the infection and were discharged today, he said.
The overall number of patients who have fully recovered as of noon today stood at 10,427 (77.2 percent) of the cumulative confirmed cases of Covid-19.
“A total of 31 patients are currently in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), of whom eight of them are under ventilator support.
“Meanwhile, four new deaths were reported to the Crisis Preparedness and Response Centre (CPRC), and the death toll stood at 141 (1.04 percent of the cumulative cases),” said Dr Noor Hisham, who is under self-quarantine at home, on Facebook live-stream today.
He had attended a special National Security Council meeting on Covid-19 that was also attended by Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department (Religious Affairs) Datuk Dr Zulkifli Mohamad al-Bakri who tested positive for Covid-19.