Umno and PAS have agreed on the terms of an electoral pact that is set to be unveiled by the end of next month.
Under the agreement, both parties will not contest against each other in state and parliament seats, paving the way for straight fights between Pakatan Harapan and the two parties in Malay majority seats in the next general election.
“The terms of the pact were finalised and agreed to in a meeting between our parties last week.
“We are now trying to find a suitable date and venue for the ceremony to launch and sign the Umno-PAS charter,” Umno secretary-general Tan Sri Annuar Musa told The Star.
He said there was no need for the pact to be approved at Umno’s annual general assembly in November because Umno’s supreme council had given its endorsement. He said the pact would only involve Umno and PAS for a start.
“However, we aim to eventually expand this agreement to include other parties so that it will cover the interests of all groups in the country,” he added.
A name has also been agreed on for the pact, which will be announced at the launch ceremony.
Annuar said the launch would be attended by party leaders, including Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his PAS counterpart Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang.
On Sunday, PAS deputy president Datuk Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man was reported as saying that the agreement between the two parties, which he described as a charter, would also involve several other groups, including NGOs.
He said some PAS officials, who were part of a joint PAS-Umno committee to discuss the pact, had to be replaced after they were voted to other positions in PAS during the party’s internal polls in June.
As such, PAS had requested Umno for a delay in launching the pact to give the new members of the committee time to get up to speed.
Asked about the delay request, Annuar said Tuan Ibrahim had mentioned September as a possible date for the launch of the pact.
“We agreed on a date in September, but we are now trying to get an earlier date as everything is ready,” he added.
An Umno-PAS pact will pose a challenge to Pakatan Harapan, but it’s the millions of predominantly young Malaysians casting their ballots for the first time in the next general election who hold the keys to victory.
An analysis by The Star based on the 14th General Election (GE14) results shows that the combined votes for Umno and PAS candidates outnumbered the ballots for Pakatan Harapan winners in 21 parliament seats and 45 state seats.
Some of the 21 parliament seats an Umno-PAS alliance could have wrested from Pakatan in GE14 are those won by big names, including the mentris besar of Kedah Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir (Jerlun) and Perak Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu (Tambun).
The 45 extra state seats an Umno-PAS pact could have won comprises constituencies in Selangor (nine); Penang (nine); Kedah (eight); Perak (eight); Johor (six); Melaka (two); Negri Sembilan (two); and Perlis (one).
Commenting on the findings, Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Muhammad Asri Mohd Ali agreed that an Umno-PAS electoral pact would pose a challenge to Pakatan.
However, he cautioned that the potential strength of an Umno-PAS pact in GE15 cannot be judged based merely on the results of GE14.
Many other factors must be taken into account, he said, including defections by elected representatives and issues that can shift voter sentiment.
For GE15, Asri believes that it is the lowering of the minimum voting age to 18 from 21 that will have a bigger impact compared to an Umno-PAS alliance.
The Election Commission has estimated that the number of voters could go up to 22 million in GE15 compared to the 14.9 million in GE14.
“I believe that the age and ethnic ratio of our electorate will change drastically with the entry of many 18,19, and 20 year-olds including older voters who did not vote in GE14 but who may choose to do so at the next poll,” he said.
The extent of change to the profile of the country’s electorate will only be known once the automatic registration of voters aged 18-21 is complete. The automatic registration will also mean those above the age of 21 and have not registered as a voter will be eligible to vote too.
Asri said that in some countries people who are between the ages 18 to their mid-20s usually do not care about politics. Their biggest concerns are not race or religion but jobs and access to affordable housing.
Political parties must, therefore, make sure that their policies and even choice of candidates appeal to an electorate that has become younger with the lowering of the voting age.
Automatic voter registration means that many seats will have large numbers of 18, 19 and 20 year-olds added to their list of eligible voters.
However, it is still not clear how many will actually come out to cast their ballots on polling day.
“We need to see what policies the Umno-PAS pact and Pakatan will offer, especially to younger voters. The party with an advantage in GE15 will be the one that can mobilise youths and get them to vote in their favour,” he said.