Barisan Nasional to emerge victorious.
For the first time in Johor, 10 political parties and coalitions along with numerous independent candidates will be contesting for a spot in the 56-seat legislative assembly.
In total there are 239 electoral candidates which means the margin for victory will be very slim among the contenders.
While the two main contenders are BN and Pakatan Harapan, the numerous other political parties play a crucial role in determining the results.
This is very similar to what happened in Malacca where Perikatan Nasional caused a split in votes
With this split in votes, BN actually only won 38 percent of the popular vote, but managed to grab nearly two-thirds of the seats. PH got 37 percent and PN managed 25 percent.
So, basically, though BN may be unpopular among the majority of voters, they again stand a good chance for victory due to the presence of these smaller parties.
Political observers can attest to this as many have commented that the more candidates there are in each state constituency, the bigger the advantage to BN in securing its mandate.
While BN may have its vote bank of loyalists, the Opposition vote will be divided by the new parties that have formed since the 2018 General Election.
There is not a single straight fight in Johor and the bulk of the 35 four-cornered contests are in Malay majority and some semi-urban seats, where BN is confident it can win.
In the previous GE14, BN lost the state after it only managed to secure 18 seats.
So, the “End Game” is that BN has not really regained the confidence of voters, but instead should bow and thank the “Avengers” like PBM, Muda, Warisan and the other smaller parties for swinging things in their favour.
The views expressed here are strictly those of The True Net reader Alex Chung from Malacca.