For a man who was deeply involved in a political coup early this year, it’s strange for Muhyiddin Yassin to say that people are fed up with politics and instead want the government to work hard for the people.
Most people can see that it is actually the main players in his fledgeling Perikatan Nasional government that are jostling for positions and power during this current Covid-19 outbreak in Malaysia.
Perhaps the prime minister made the remarks in his attempt to hide the fact that, at this moment, he is merely a sitting duck, despite his immense powers as the head of the government.
Why do I say this? Let me begin with a true story. Lim Kit Siang and I rushed back from our events in Johor on July 25, 2015, at the request of PKR secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution Ismail for an emergency discussion. As close allies, we consult each other regularly, especially on major developments in politics.
Saifuddin told us he had heard that (then) attorney-general Abdul Gani Patail was going to charge (then) prime minister Najib Razak with abuse of power in the SRC International case the following week. Kit Siang took time to ponder, and said to us: “Will Najib be a sitting duck waiting to be slaughtered?”
Three days after that, on July 28, Gani, Muhyiddin and Shafie Apdal were sacked from the Barisan Nasional government.
Now, back to today. Muhyiddin is governing his shaky coalition with 10 groups within PN.
There are four factions in Bersatu – those who joined in 2016, those who joined Bersatu from Umno after Pakatan Harapan won the general election in 2018; Mohamed Azmin Ali’s group; and, Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s supporters, who could create an upset in the Bersatu party election, which has been delayed ostensibly due to the Covid-19 situation.
Another four are competing factions in Umno; each led by Najib, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Hishammuddin Hussein and a non-aligned group that includes Mohamad Hasan and Khairy Jamaluddin.
The other two consist of PAS and Gabungan Parti Sarawak.
Muhyiddin’s options
Ideally, Muhyiddin would want to get rid of the Dr Mahathir supporters, and to find a way not to have Bersatu party elections. He wants to avoid Mukhriz Mahathir’s challenge for the Bersatu presidency, although it’s difficult for the Kedah menteri besar to win, but it’s not an impossible task.
Muhyiddin also knows that among the four Umno factions, he can only trust Hishammuddin’s group.
PKR renegade Azmin is hoping to have a party structure in which he can play a significant role and bring in his grassroots supporters who currently have no political home due to the limbo in Bersatu. He also needs to create a political space for his non-Malay supporters who are no longer welcome in PKR yet have nowhere to go.
For Muhyiddin’s government to gain legitimacy, he needs to show that he runs a clean government. The voters, particularly the deciding swing voters among the Malays, value integrity highly, apart from economic well-being.
Apart from ensuring jobs and economic well-being for ordinary Malaysians, the prime minister must show voters that he is committed to fighting corruption, oherwise, he will never gain moral legitimacy for launching the political coup against the democratically elected Pakatan Harapan government.
To convince the people, he needs to demonstrate his commitment to fighting corruption by allowing justice to take its course – for Najib and Rosmah Mansor, Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor and Zahid to go to jail when they are convicted by the courts for corruption.
The only problem is, can he do so without an Umno revolt?
If waiting for the court convictions is leaving too much to chance, could Muhyiddin resort to breaking up both Umno and Bersatu at the same time before the Umno big wigs strike back?
New party?
There is a rumour in the city that Muhyiddin, Azmin and Hishammuddin are trying to form a new party. For them, this could be a brilliant solution to solve all the problems. There’s no need to worry about Bersatu elections; Azmin’s supporters can find a political home; and, Hishammuddin’s faction could bring in the real support that Muhyiddin needs.
However, there are two challenges to this plan.
First, Muhyiddin only has a maximum of 113 or 114 seats. If Pakatan Harapan parties (PKR, DAP, Amanah) and Warisan, as well as Dr Mahathir’s faction of Bersatu MPs, stick together, Muhyiddin has no room to manouvre.
If Muhyiddin, Azmin and Hishammuddin manage to break up this “Pakatan plus” coalition, they would be able to form their new party without the need to have both Najib and Zahid’s groups. In their calculations, they would probably attempt to lure in the support of a few Pakatan MPs.
Second, Muhyiddin must be very careful with Johor Umno. Its leaders are so eager to wrest back the power they lost in the last general election.
My friendly advice to the prime minister, whom I used to work very closely with and had many candid conversations with during our time as PH partners, is this: Umno could pull a fast one on him in his own backyard in Johor.
A snap election in Johor may mean the end of Bersatu in the state, as well as Muhyiddin losing his Bukit Gambir state seat.
In these tense political undercurrents, it could be Muhyiddin that triggers something to tear down and tame his Umno challengers. Or, it could be Johor Umno that triggers the beginning of the onslaught against the prime minister.
For Pakatan Harapan and the allies who choose to side with us, such as Warisan and Dr Mahathir’s faction in Bersatu, we must stick together. Malaysians who voted for Pakatan Harapan expecting a clean government and better economic opportunities will still support us. – TMI.
Liew Chin Tong is DAP’s national political education director and central executive committee member.
The views expressed here are strictly those of the writer.